What is your vision of the situation in Belarus?
Alexander Lukashenko’s landslide victory in a presidential election marked by censorship of opposition candidates and electoral fraud sparked protests in Minsk and in most major cities of Belarus. The movement, unprecedented in a country where Lukashenko has reigned as a despot for twenty-six years, takes a revolutionary turn and comes up against violent repression. What is happening now in Belarus reminds me of what happened in Poland in the 1980s with Solidarność, massive strikes and demonstrations all over the country.

   Are there potential risks for Ukraine?

Ukraine and Belarus are at the forefront of the countries of the former Soviet Union likely to suffer from Putin’s policy. For Ukraine, the consequences can be important with a stronger and growing interference of Russia in Ukrainian politics by helping the pro-Putin political parties in Ukraine. The municipal elections in Ukraine will be very revealing of the aggressiveness of the pro-Putin clan in Ukraine. If Putin takes back Belarus, he will try to also take back Ukraine to bring it back under the influence of the Russian Federation.

 
What are the possible scenarios?
I am thinking of three possible scenarios for the crisis hitting Belarus.

In the first scenario, President Lukashenko relies entirely on the methods of repression: he sends the special troops of the Ministry of the Interior (OMON) in contact with the demonstrators, establishes martial law and tips the country into a regime of acute censorship. The Belarusian state security apparatus a heritage of the Soviet Union, allows it to quell dissent. To guard against the risk of a putsch, he ousts around him the personalities considered close to foreign powers.

In the second scenario, the isolated and weakened President Lukashenko turns to Russia, which manages to get him to accept a plan for a union. The Russian-Belarusian integration plan is a long-standing project championed by several prominent members of the Russian security apparatus. In the way of thinking of Vladimir Putin this is a further step towards for rebuilding a new empire, after the annexation of Crimea, the integration of Belarus for him is a plan to greatly increase his political prestige.

Finally, in the last scenario, the Lukashenko regime gives in to popular pressure and, in Ukraine’s wake, the country takes the path of color revolutions and western values. But Russia cannot afford for a country as close and as strategic as Belarus to escape its sphere of influence. Russian military or paramilitary intervention then becomes a certainty.

 

 

 

 
general assessment of such situations in the former CIS countries (Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus).

For the other CIS countries, if Putin’s policy wins in Belarus, the situation will be serious. With a political victory of Putin in Belarus his offensive will be reinforced in the direction of the ex-state of the USSR. Putin’s dream of reconstituting the empire will be even stronger in the eventuality of a political victory in Belarus.

 

 
Was this situation expected?
It is an unexpected crisis in its magnitude. Alexander Lukashenko wanted to impose by force to prepare and pass these elections, he lost! What is happening now in Belarus reminds me as I wrote before in some articles of what happened in Poland in the 1980s with Solidarność, massive strikes and demonstrations all over the country.

 
Do you think that the reaction of the West to the situation in Belarus will not be active enough, compared to Ukraine?
The European Union does not recognize the results of the contested re-election of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and will punish those responsible for electoral fraud and violence. But this is not enough in my opinion and will have no concrete results. In my opinion, they are waiting the reactions Putin in this case. Please, you must remember that in the West, some leaders are ready to reestablish relations with Putin, this crisis in Belarus is against their plans.

 
How do you assess the political situation in Ukraine? In what direction has it changed with the coming of the new government?
Ukraine is what is called a frozen conflict. A war of waiting, of attrition, around a 400 km front line, with bursts of violence, clashes, then periods of calm. The spread of the coronavirus threatens to overwhelm Ukraine’s health system, already weakened by six years of conflict, especially in the Donetsk region in the east of the country. The fight against corruption is progressing with difficulty, Ukraine would need a real reform of the justice system to be able to punish corrupt people without delay and severely. The donators of the West are still waiting concrete results in this large fight against corruption, the West is disappointed and tired and wants to see more effectiveness and reforms to fight against corruption. As I wrote on May 13, 2019 in one of my articles for the newspaper of Switzerland La Tribune de Genève; the mission that awaits Volodymyr Zelensky is gigantic. “Breaking the system,” as he promised, with constant pressure from an aggressive Russia determined to break up Ukraine, will be difficult.

 

 

 

 

 
>What is your assessment of Ukraine’s integration processes with the EU and NATO?
I am in favor of the integration of Ukraine into the EU and into NATO. But there are still a lot of reforms to make and especially reforms to fight effectively against corruption. The war in eastern Ukraine and corruption hamper Ukraine’s membership of the EU and NATO. Ukraine has enshrined in its Constitution its aspiration to one day join the European Union and NATO, which is an excellent initiative. I agree with former Ambassador Kostiantyn Yelisieiev that the launch of Ukraine’s accession process to the EU is within reach, but the reforms must continue and have visible results very quickly.

 

 

 
Tell us in detail about your projects in Ukraine. What are the goals of these projects? And why did you choose Ukraine?
I came in Ukraine in 2012 to create a business school. As a Speaker of the European Commission (I was member of Team Europe network from 2007 to 2014), I was invited to speak about the EU in Ukrainian universities. When the revolution broke out, I was already known, I was called by Ukrainians friends to join the protests on Maidan where I spoke several times on the stage in front of tens of thousands of people. After the revolution I presented as TV anchor more than 150 TV shows in English on Ukrainian TV channels and I continued to give conferences and interviews in Ukraine. I also continued my EU activities, I am member of the board of the EU NGO New Europeans, I am also chief editor of Russian Monitor a newspaper of the non-systemic Russian opposition, Russian Monitor was founded by my friend Fedor Klimenko, he is the owner of this newspaper. With the Coronavirus crisis, I started to give some Zoom conferences with colleagues, universities, NGOs, and institutes from abroad. Now a lot of universities because of the Coronavirus crisis are developing courses online, some EU and North American universities asked me to give courses online for the next academic year (September 2020 – June 2021), so I accepted. I will also continue to write articles for international newspapers.

 

 
World pandemic. A planned action or still a virus that was not expected? How did the situation with the virus affect the international political processes? How has the situation with the virus affected the global processes?
The virus was not expected. The world will have to face an important economic crisis, this autumn will be the beginning of this economic crisis, the social effects will be huge, a lot of persons will lose their job. When the world faces an economic crisis with social consequences you have also to face geopolitical tensions. I think 2021 will be a key year for a lot of countries in the world.

 
Can you assess the Ukraine-Hungary conflict? And the EU-Hungary?
Ukraine and Hungary have shown their desire for appeasement after years of conflict over the language of instruction for the Hungarian minority in Ukraine. The “illiberal” drift in Hungary worries more and more Europeans. While Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian Prime Minister, has passed a law allowing him to legislate by decree to deal with the health emergency of the coronavirus, 14 countries in the western European Union have collectively expressed their concern. The EU and Hungary will find a solution to avoid a large crisis. Hungary wants to stay in the EU and the EU needs Hungary.

 
What do you think about the format of the Visegrad Group?
The Visegrád Group is an intergovernmental organization of four Central European countries: Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. These countries are all member states of the European Union and NATO. After the Soviet Union implosion, these four countries had no influence in the European sphere. So their mutual consolidation has proven to Europe their ability to cooperate as states of the former Eastern bloc. The objective of Visegrád group is not to compete with the European Union. This supra-national organization has enabled its members to join NATO and the EU.